One of the most pressing contributors to declining coconut productivity is climate change. Field observations from aromatic coconut plantations in Thailand, combined with discussions with farmers and experts, indicate that coconut growth and yield are increasingly affected by climate-induced stressors, namely elevated temperatures, low relative humidity, water deficits, and prolonged dry periods. These conditions have led to a noticeable reduction in flowering, poor nut set, smaller nut size, and lower nut quality, all of which contribute to significant yield losses in affected plantations.
Experts have emphasized the importance of ensuring balanced nutrient availability to maintain plant health and enhance resilience to abiotic stress. Measures to improve soil moisture retention and nutrient use efficiency, such as the maintenance of well-formed basins and ridges after heavy rainfall, are essential to prevent water runoff and encourage water absorption. Proper spacing between palms, ranging from 7.5 to 9 meters, depending on the variety, also plays a key role in reducing competition for resources and improving canopy ventilation.
Yet climate change does not act alone. It contributes to environmental conditions that may accelerate pest population growth and increase plant vulnerability. While not the sole cause, climate variability is an aggravating factor in recent outbreaks of coconut palm weevils, rhinoceros beetles, whiteflies, coconut scale insects, and phytoplasma-related diseases. These events suggest urgent need for robust, locally adapted integrated pest management systems and early warning mechanisms. Without these, producers remain highly vulnerable to sudden pest outbreaks, which can devastate crops and livelihoods. Strengthening surveillance and developing proactive, science-based control strategies must be elevated as national and regional priorities.
Beyond climate factors, structural issues continue to hinder productivity. One such issue is the prevalence of senile coconut palms. These tall, aging trees produce less and are difficult to harvest, especially in countries that rely on manual climbers. Although tall palms can live and bear fruit for over a century, farmers are often reluctant to replace them due to the perceived value of mature trees. However, without systematic replanting using improved varieties, the coconut sector cannot sustain its current or future demands. A comprehensive, farmer-centered replanting program is essential to ensure the long-term viability of the crop for both the local consumption and the global market demand.
Coconut productivity is further constrained by inconsistent maintenance practices and the limited availability of high-quality planting materials. Expecting high yields without proper care contradicts accepted agronomic principles. Coconut palms, like any other crops, require attention and upkeep. Encouragingly, several countries have released new, high-quality varieties. However, uptake is limited by the absence of reliable systems to ensure timely access to planting materials. A structured approach is needed. Each new variety released should be accompanied by the establishment of certified nurseries to serve as legal and accessible sources of propagation material.
The imbalance between rising global demand and declining supply has broader implications. Since late 2024, the sharp increase in coconut product prices has triggered concern across the value chain. While higher prices may temporarily benefit farmers, they place strain on processors and exporters who face reduced raw material availability, underutilized processing capacities, and in some cases, workforce layoffs. What appears to be an economic gain on the surface reflects deeper systemic challenges that must be addressed urgently.
It is also important to remember that for many years, farmers have borne the burden of low coconut prices. Their resilience and continued production under difficult circumstances are the foundation of this global industry. Now is the time to honor and support their contribution through real investment. They must be recognized not only as producers, but as essential partners in building a more sustainable and equitable coconut sector. Transparent and inclusive value chain will serve everyone, producers, processors, and consumers alike, by ensuring steady access to quality coconuts and fair distribution of value.
In light of these interlinked environmental and structural challenges, our collective response must be grounded in research, science and innovation, supported by cooperation, and multi sector technical and policy commitment to long-term transformation of the coconut sector, anchored in sustainability, equity, and resilience.