Global desiccated coconut (DC) prices experienced a significant structural shift upward in 2025 following relatively stable market conditions in 2023 and a gradual tightening phase in 2024. Throughout 2023, DC prices in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka remained largely range-bound, supported by adequate coconut supply and balanced global demand. Average FOB prices generally hovered between USD 1,700–1,900 per metric ton (MT) in the Philippines, USD 1,400–1,700/MT in Indonesia, and USD 1,550–1,750/MT in Sri Lanka. During 2024, however, prices began trending upward as raw coconut availability tightened, driven by weather-related production constraints and increasing competition from other coconut product industries. By the end of 2024, prices had risen significantly, reaching approximately USD 2,278/MT in the Philippines, USD 3,200/MT in Indonesia, and USD 3,733/MT in Sri Lanka.

Figure 1. Monthly Price of Desiccated Coconut (US$/MT), January 2023- January 2026

                                               Source: ICC

The market entered 2025 at already elevated levels and then experienced a sharp surge during the first half of the year. Prices in the Philippines exceeded USD 3,700/MT from April onward, Indonesia peaked at around USD 3,430/MT in May, and Sri Lanka reached an exceptional high of USD 4,437/MT during the same period. These increases were primarily driven by severe shortages of fresh coconuts, elevated farmgate prices, and strong international demand from food manufacturing industries, particularly in bakery and confectionery sectors. However, the second half of 2025 saw a gradual price correction, especially in Indonesia and Sri Lanka, as extremely high prices led to buyer resistance, demand adjustments, and some improvement in raw material supply.

By early 2026, the market showed signs of transitioning toward a more stable equilibrium, although prices remained historically high. In January 2026, Philippine DC prices stayed firm at around USD 3,700/MT, reflecting persistent domestic supply constraints and strong export demand. Meanwhile, Indonesia and Sri Lanka experienced more noticeable declines to approximately USD 2,650/MT and USD 2,825/MT, respectively, indicating improved coconut availability and normalization following the extreme price peaks of 2025. Overall, the 2026 outlook suggests that while prices are unlikely to return to pre-2024 levels, market volatility is expected to moderate as supply conditions gradually stabilize and buyers adopt more cautious procurement strategies.

On the export front, the Philippines recorded strong earnings growth driven primarily by price escalation rather than volume expansion. Between January–November 2024 and the same period in 2025, export volume increased by 13.3% from 161,586 MT to 183,047 MT. However, export value rose much more sharply, surging by 73.6% from USD 271.3 million to USD 471.0 million. This divergence reflects a substantial increase in average export prices, from roughly USD 1,680/MT to about USD 2,570/MT. The data indicate that 2025 was characterized by a supply-constrained, high-price environment where international buyers continued to secure necessary volumes despite rising costs, underscoring the relatively inelastic demand for desiccated coconut in key food processing industries.

Table 1. Exports of Desiccated Coconut from Philippines, January-November 2024/2025

                                               Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)

Export destination patterns further demonstrate strong demand concentration in developed markets alongside broad geographic diversification. The Netherlands and the United States remained the largest importers of Philippine DC, together accounting for a substantial share of total shipments. Other major markets included Canada, Germany, Australia, the Russian Federation, China, Turkey, and Brazil, while a significant portion of exports was distributed across numerous smaller markets. This diversified destination structure has helped mitigate market risks and sustain export revenues during periods of supply tightness and price volatility. In Indonesia, export performance in 2025 was similarly influenced by raw material constraints. Strong domestic demand for copra and coconut oil diverted part of the coconut supply away from the desiccated coconut sector, while rising fresh nut prices increased production costs for processors. Although export volumes faced pressure, elevated global prices enabled Indonesian exporters to maintain overall export earnings.

On the demand side, global imports of desiccated coconut in 2025 reflected a clear shift toward value-driven growth. Imports by the European Union increased significantly in both volume and value during January–October 2025. Import volumes rose by 12.9%, while total import value surged by 74%, indicating a sharp rise in unit prices. The United States showed relatively stable volume growth of 2.8%, but import value increased by 58%, further highlighting the strong impact of price inflation.

Table 2. Global Imports of Desiccated Coconut, January-October 2024/2025

                                              P: preliminary figures Source: ITC and US Census Bureau

At the global level, import trends reveal a widening gap between volume and value performance. While total world import volume declined slightly by 2.8% during January–October 2025, total import value increased sharply by nearly 55%. This pattern underscores the dominant role of supply constraints and elevated production costs in shaping the market. High prices prompted some buyers to reduce or delay purchases, yet overall demand remained resilient due to the limited substitutability of desiccated coconut in key food applications.

In summary, the desiccated coconut market in 2025 was characterized by tight supply conditions, record-high prices, and strong value growth across global trade flows. Moving into 2026, the market is expected to remain structurally firm but more stable, with gradual improvements in supply conditions likely to moderate price volatility while maintaining levels well above historical averages.