The global desiccated coconut market has been experiencing a significant transformation, driven by a combination of supply constraints, increasing demand, and rising prices. In the first quarter of 2025, both import volumes and values have shown considerable growth in key regions like the EU and the US, while price trends in major producing countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka have seen upward pressure. In the Philippines, prices for desiccated coconut have risen steadily due to a production shortfall caused by the effects of the 2023-2024 El Niño, which impacted the nut set rates. This has led to a price range between $2,400 and $2,650 per metric ton. Despite this, production is expected to remain 10-20% below pre-El Niño levels, ensuring that prices continue to rise due to persistent supply constraints.

In Indonesia, the price increase is also attributed to reduced domestic supply and strong export demand. Export surges, especially to China, have reduced local availability, exacerbating supply constraints and contributing to price hikes. The price trend in Sri Lanka has been marked by volatility, driven by severe weather conditions such as droughts and extreme temperatures that have significantly reduced yields. As a result, Sri Lanka has seen some of the highest prices globally, with desiccated coconut reaching approximately $3,200 per metric ton. This market volatility, driven by climatic disruptions, has compounded the pressure on global coconut prices, particularly affecting countries with highly variable production outputs.

The import data for desiccated coconut reveals key trends in demand across regions. In the European Union (EU27), imports have risen by 15.1% in volume, from 19,560 metric tons in January-March 2024 to 22,516 metric tons in January-March 2025. The value of these imports surged by 64.9%, from $39.36 million to $64.9 million, indicating a higher demand for coconut products. This growth is reflective of changing consumer preferences in the EU, where plant-based and health-conscious foods are gaining popularity. Similarly, the United States experienced a 22.3% increase in import volume, from 7,758 metric tons to 9,491 metric tons, with the value increasing by 72.2%, from $13.36 million to $23.02 million. The rise in both volume and value in these regions signals that the EU and US are actively working to increase their stocks of desiccated coconut in anticipation of a potentially tighter global supply. This stockpiling strategy comes as both regions expect ongoing supply constraints in the coming months due to production challenges in major coconut-producing countries.

Despite these increases in demand, global import volume has shown a slight decline of 3.4%, from 88,234 metric tons in January-March 2024 to 85,201 metric tons in the same period in 2025. However, the value of global imports increased by 37.4%, from $126.21 million to $173.43 million. This reflects a tightening global supply that is still recovering from the El Niño effects and cannot fully meet the rising demand. The slight decrease in volume combined with the significant rise in value highlights the market's reliance on higher-priced products due to the ongoing supply constraints. Global demand remains strong, but the supply issues are causing a shift towards more expensive, premium desiccated coconut, as importers are willing to pay more for available stocks.

In terms of the export market, Indonesia and the Philippines both witnessed a rise in the value of their exports, despite the reduction in import volumes. In Indonesia, the volume of desiccated coconut imports declined by 13.9%, from 27,441 metric tons in 2024 to 24,096 metric tons in 2025, while the value of imports increased by 46%, from $31.86 million to $59.04 million. Similarly, the Philippines experienced a 9.7% decrease in import volume, from 41,854 metric tons in 2024 to 38,142 metric tons in 2025. However, the value of imports grew by 34.3%, from $62.13 million to $94.59 million, reflecting the impact of rising prices.

Looking ahead to the next seven months (June – December 2025), the desiccated coconut market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in both price and value. The combination of tight supply, strong global demand, and climatic challenges will likely push prices higher across the key producing regions, especially the Philippines and Indonesia. The EU and US are expected to continue driving import demand, which will likely maintain upward pressure on global prices. As production challenges persist, particularly in Sri Lanka, the market will remain volatile, but higher prices and premium products will dominate. Stakeholders should prepare for continued price increases, with the market adjusting to the higher price environment while adapting to changing consumption trends.