Market Review of Dessicated Coconut - June 2026

Desiccated coconut market continued its correction phase in 2026, following the unprecedented price surge experienced during 2024 and early 2025. Between January and May 2026, prices declined across all major producing countries, with the Philippines falling from US$ 3,711/MT to US$ 3,197/MT, Indonesia from US$ 2,650/MT to US$ 2,095/MT, and Sri Lanka from US$ 2,825/MT to US$ 2,365/MT. Compared with the record highs reached in 2025—US$ 3,718/MT in the Philippines, US$ 3,430/MT in Indonesia, and US$ 4,437/MT in Sri Lanka—the market reflected improving coconut availability and softer buying interest as importers adjusted to the exceptionally high prices of the previous year. Nevertheless, prices remained substantially above the levels recorded in 2023 and most of 2024, indicating that the market had yet to fully return to pre-shortage conditions. Indonesia recorded the steepest price decline, suggesting a faster recovery in coconut supply, while the Philippines continued to command the highest prices among major exporters due to relatively tighter domestic availability. Overall, the market environment in 2026 was characterized by a gradual normalization of prices following two years of supply-driven inflation, although values remained historically elevated.

Despite the easing price trend, the Philippines achieved a strong export performance during the first four months of 2026, benefiting from sustained international demand and prices that remained historically high. Export volume increased by 26.1% year-on-year to 62,439 metric tons, while export earnings surged by 62.0% to US$ 204.8 million. The significantly stronger growth in export value compared with volume highlights the continued strength of export prices relative to the same period in 2025. Average export unit values rose by approximately 28.5%, from US$ 2,553/MT to US$ 3,280/MT, reflecting the lingering impact of global supply constraints that supported market prices despite the broader downward correction. Consequently, the Philippines was able to capitalize on both higher shipment volumes and favorable price levels, resulting in a substantial increase in export revenues.

In contrast to the Philippines, Indonesia experienced a different market dynamic during the same period. While export volumes expanded considerably, declining prices weighed on export earnings. Shipments increased by 21.9% year-on-year to 36,709 metric tons, supported by improved coconut availability and steady demand from overseas markets. However, export earnings declined marginally by 2.1% to US$ 74.3 million as average export prices fell by nearly 20% compared with the previous year. This divergence between volume and value growth reflects Indonesia's faster supply recovery and greater exposure to the price correction underway in the global market. As a result, increased export availability was insufficient to offset the impact of lower unit prices on overall export revenues.

On the demand side, global imports of desiccated coconut remained relatively stable during January–April 2026, although performance varied across major markets. Total world imports declined marginally by 0.3% year-on-year to 117,985 metric tons, while imports by the EU27—the world's largest desiccated coconut market—remained virtually unchanged at 30,387 metric tons. In contrast, the United States recorded stronger demand, with import volumes increasing by 5.8% to 14,698 metric tons. The relatively stable global import volume suggests that end-user demand remained resilient despite elevated prices, particularly in the food processing, bakery, and confectionery industries.

However, a more significant development was observed in import values. Despite stagnant trade volumes, global import expenditure increased by 18.6% to US$ 310.6 million during the review period. Import values rose even more sharply in the EU27 and the United States, increasing by 25.4% and 34.3%, respectively. The disparity between volume and value growth indicates that import prices remained considerably higher than a year earlier. Average import values increased by approximately 26.0% in the EU27, 26.9% in the United States, and 19.0% globally, underscoring the lingering effects of the supply shortages that affected major producing countries during 2024 and 2025. Therefore, although the market entered a correction phase in 2026, international prices continued to support export earnings, highlighting the ongoing adjustment of global supply chains to the tighter market conditions that emerged over the past two years.

Taken together, developments during the first four months of 2026 indicate that the global desiccated coconut market is transitioning from a period of acute supply tightness toward a more balanced environment. While prices have softened from their 2025 peaks, they remain well above historical norms, supporting export earnings in key producing countries. At the same time, stable import demand in major consuming markets demonstrates the resilience of desiccated coconut consumption despite elevated prices. The contrasting export performances of the Philippines and Indonesia further suggest that the pace of supply recovery differs among producing countries, which may continue to influence market competitiveness and pricing trends throughout the remainder of 2026.