The global lauric oils market—comprising coconut oil (CNO) and palm kernel oil (PKO)—experienced considerable volatility during the first eight months of 2025. This fluctuation was largely attributed to uneven production trends in major producing countries, influenced by adverse weather conditions and shifts in industrial demand. Despite lower export volumes, both the Philippines and Indonesia recorded significant increases in export values, underscoring the tightness of supply and firm global prices.

The Philippines, the world’s largest coconut oil exporter, recorded a substantial decline in export volumes between January and August 2025, falling by 25.75% to 803,881 metric tons. Nevertheless, the export value increased by 42.35%, suggesting that higher global prices offset reduced output. This imbalance highlights the effects of El Niño-related droughts and reduced nut availability, which curtailed milling operations and tightened overall supply.

Indonesia followed a similar trend. As shown in Table 1, its coconut oil exports dropped by 21.6% to 369,130 metric tons, while export value surged by 46.9%. The decline was mainly due to production disruptions and increased domestic demand from the oleochemical sector. In contrast, PKO exports from Indonesia rose modestly by 1.7% in volume, yet the value more than doubled (up 82.1%) due to price escalation. Overall, total lauric oil exports from Indonesia declined by 5.6% in volume but increased by nearly 70% in value, reflecting a strong global market for lauric oils despite constrained supplies.

Industrial consumption of lauric oils remained resilient throughout 2025, particularly within the oleochemical and biofuel industries. Despite supply limitations, downstream users in Europe and North America maintained robust purchasing activity, driven by the need for sustainable raw materials and substitutes for petroleum-based inputs.

In the European Union, imports of coconut oil declined by 7.1% to 561,678 metric tons during January–July 2025. However, the import value rose sharply by 42.6%, underscoring the price rally triggered by constrained supply. PKO imports remained stable, increasing marginally by 0.9% in volume but rising 36.6% in value. Together, lauric oil imports to the EU contracted by 4.8% in volume but increased by over 40% in value. The Philippines and Indonesia continued to dominate the EU market, accounting for more than 85% of total lauric oil imports.

The United States displayed a slightly softer demand profile compared to Europe. Total U.S. imports of lauric oils declined by 2.9% to 483,115 metric tons, primarily due to a 10.7% reduction in coconut oil imports. Despite the drop in volume, the value of coconut oil imports surged by 43.5%. Meanwhile, PKO imports rose by 7% in volume and an impressive 65.8% in value, reflecting firm prices and strong utilization in surfactant and detergent manufacturing. Overall, total lauric oil import values increased by 52.3%, indicating sustained demand despite reduced availability.

Lauric oil prices displayed notable strength during 2025. Coconut oil prices rose by 38.8%, from USD 1,976 per metric ton in January to USD 2,742 per metric ton in August. Palm kernel oil also experienced firming prices, increasing by 15.4% from USD 1,962 to USD 2,264 per metric ton over the same period. The strong price trajectory was supported by supply shortages in Southeast Asia, increased biodiesel blending mandates, and expanding industrial use of lauric oils as sustainable feedstock alternatives.

Looking ahead, lauric oil prices are expected to remain firm into the final quarter of 2025, supported by tight raw material supply and continued global demand from the food, oleochemical, and renewable energy sectors. Recovery in coconut production will depend heavily on favorable weather conditions in the Philippines and Indonesia. Any improvement in supply could stabilize prices, but structural demand growth—especially from sustainable product markets—is likely to keep lauric oils in a strong price position over the medium term.