Global activated carbon market growth decelerated in 2023 due to heightened global economic instability. The United States, the leading importer of coconut shell-based activated carbon, experienced a significant 30% decline in imports throughout 2023 compared to the prior year. This downward trend appears to be persisting in 2024, with preliminary data from the US Census Bureau indicating a 7% decrease in imports during the first quarter relative to the same period in 2023. This reduction can be primarily attributed to the ongoing economic slowdown within the country. However, it is important to note that despite the recent decline, US imports of activated carbon have demonstrated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% over the past decade.

Similarly, Japan experienced a 6% decrease in activated carbon imports during calendar year (CY) 2023, reversing the 2% increase recorded in 2022. This decline aligns with a slight downward trend in Japan's import volume over the past decade, with a CAGR of -0.35%.

On the supply side, India, a major producer of activated carbon, exported 141,862 tons to the global market during January-December 2023, reflecting an 8.1% reduction in export volume compared to the previous year. This is noteworthy given India’s positive export growth between 2019 and 2022, which averaged 15%. In 2023, India exported activated carbon to 142 countries, with the United States being the primary importer with a 14% share.

Sri Lanka, another significant producer of coconut shell-based activated carbon, also faced a negative trend in 2023. Despite enjoying an increasing export volume trend from 2018 to 2022, with a CAGR of 9.2%, Sri Lanka's export volume declined by 6% to 51,539 tons during January-December 2023. This generated export earnings of USD 124 million, a 20% decrease from the same period in 2022. However, in the first quarter of 2024, Sri Lanka experienced a surge in exports, shipping 15,377 tons globally, a 30% increase over the previous year's volume. Key importers of Sri Lankan activated carbon included the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

The Philippines reported a reduction in activated carbon exports, totaling 60,818 tons in January-December 2023, down from 80,688 tons in 2022. Key importers included Japan, China, the United States, Germany, South Korea, and Chinese Taipei. This decline is primarily attributed to diminished demand in importing countries due to economic slowdowns.

Indonesia, another notable producer of coconut shell-based activated carbon, also displayed a declining trend in 2023, with an 8% decrease in exports compared to the previous year. Indonesia exported 17,093 tons, generating USD 26.1 million in earnings. In the first quarter of 2024, this downward trend continued, with Indonesia shipping 3.94 thousand tons, earning USD 5.8 million. Major export destinations included China, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, Australia, and the USA.

Despite the decline in demand for activated carbon, the price of coconut shell charcoal, a key raw material, remained relatively stable across major producing nations throughout 2023. Annual average prices ranged from USD 349/MT to USD 461/MT in the Philippines, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and India, highlighting market diversity. However, the first half of 2024 suggests a potential shift, with prices rising in India and Sri Lanka, while remaining stable in Indonesia and the Philippines. Monitoring price developments in the coming months will be crucial to determine if this is a temporary fluctuation or a more sustained trend.

In contrast to the stability of coconut shell charcoal prices, the export price of activated carbon showed significant fluctuations throughout 2023. For instance, Indonesia saw prices increase from USD 1,433/MT in January to USD 1,675/MT by April, followed by a decline to USD 1,468/MT in July, and then a gradual rise to USD 1,527/MT in November before dropping to USD 1,365/MT by December. Similarly, Sri Lanka experienced fluctuating prices, ranging from USD 2,391/MT in January to USD 2,671/MT in March, then decreasing to USD 2,208/MT in July, rising again to USD 2,570/MT in November, and finally dropping to USD 2,460/MT by December. These fluctuations are likely to persist in 2024 due to various factors, including shifting supply and demand dynamics, production cost variations, and global economic conditions.