Global trade data for January–September 2025 indicate a tightening activated carbon market, characterized by declining import volumes alongside sharply higher prices. Total global imports fell to 690,807 metric tons in 2025, compared with 713,870 metric tons in 2024 and 709,781 metric tons in 2023. This decline marks a clear reversal after two years of relative stability. Importantly, the contraction occurred despite sustained demand from major end-use sectors, including water treatment, air purification, food processing, and energy-related applications. This suggests that supply-side constraints and higher prices, rather than weaker consumption, were the primary factors limiting trade. By contrast, the marginal increase in volumes between 2023 and 2024 reflected a more balanced market with moderate prices and adequate supply. The 2025 decline, coupled with strong price increases in major exporting countries, points to the combined effects of elevated coconut shell charcoal costs, limited production capacity, and tighter export availability. Overall, the data are consistent with a price-led market environment, in which reduced volumes coexist with higher unit values, indicating that activated carbon prices have shifted to a structurally higher level compared with 2023–2024.

Within this global context, U.S. imports of coconut shell charcoal–based activated carbon recorded a notable rebound in January–September 2025 following relatively flat performance in 2023–2024. Import values declined slightly from USD 75.9 million in 2023 to USD 73.3 million in 2024, while volumes remained broadly stable at around 35,000 metric tons, implying some price softening. In contrast, 2025 saw a sharp recovery, with import value rising to USD 101.4 million, an increase of 38 percent year on year, and volumes expanding to 38,552 metric tons, up 10 percent. The much faster growth in value relative to volume indicates a significant rise in unit import prices. This reflects stronger demand from water treatment, air purification, and industrial applications, combined with tighter supply conditions and higher production and logistics costs in key supplying countries.

Similar price-driven pattern is evident in Sri Lanka’s exports of coconut shell charcoal–based activated carbon during January–October 2025. Although export volumes declined slightly to 46,823 metric tons from a record 48,547 metric tons in the same period of 2024, export earnings surged to US$ 161.3 million. This represents a substantial increase compared with US$ 123.3 million in 2024 and US$ 102.9 million in 2023. The divergence between volume and value highlights a sharp rise in average export prices in 2025, in line with global market trends. In contrast, export growth in 2023 and 2024 was more balanced, with increases in value largely tracking shipment volumes and only moderate price gains. The 2025 outcome therefore signals a structural shift in market dynamics, with elevated coconut shell charcoal costs, tighter feedstock availability, and strong international demand—particularly from environmental and water treatment applications—driving activated carbon prices to historically high levels and significantly boosting Sri Lanka’s export revenues despite stable-to-lower volumes.

Indonesia’s export performance further underscores the emergence of a high-price, supply-constrained market in 2025. During January–October 2025, exports of coconut shell charcoal–based activated carbon declined to 13,339 metric tons, down from 15,781 metric tons in 2023 and slightly below the 2024 level. This continued contraction reflects persistent tightness in raw material availability and limited capacity expansion. Despite lower volumes, export earnings rose sharply to US$ 22.8 million in 2025, recovering from US$ 19.0 million in 2024 and approaching the 2023 level, when shipments were significantly higher. This contrast points to a substantial increase in unit export prices in 2025, driven by surging coconut shell charcoal costs and strong global demand. Unlike 2023, when export performance was largely volume-driven, or 2024, when both volumes and prices weakened, Indonesia’s 2025 exports were clearly underpinned by price-led growth.

Underlying these developments, the coconut shell charcoal market experienced a decisive shift in 2025 from the relatively moderate price environment of 2023–2024 to an exceptionally tight and high-price regime across Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and India. While prices during 2023 and the first half of 2024 were largely stable and range-bound, 2025 recorded a rapid and sustained escalation from the beginning of the year. Between January and June 2025, prices rose sharply in all three countries: in Sri Lanka, from around US$ 544 to over US$ 815 per metric ton; in Indonesia, from approximately US$ 616 to above US$ 1,000 per metric ton; and in India, from roughly US$ 629 to nearly US$ 990 per metric ton. Both the speed and magnitude of these increases were unprecedented compared with earlier years, when price movements were gradual and often seasonal. Although prices eased slightly in the final quarter of 2025, they remained at historically elevated levels, pointing to a structural shift in market fundamentals driven by strong demand from the activated carbon industry and constrained raw material availability.

The surge in coconut shell charcoal prices was directly transmitted to the activated carbon market through a strong cost pass-through mechanism. During 2023 and most of 2024, activated carbon prices remained relatively stable, reflecting subdued charcoal prices. This changed markedly in 2025 as charcoal prices surged to unprecedented levels across major producing countries. Rising charcoal costs significantly increased production expenses for activated carbon manufacturers, particularly in Indonesia and India, where prices exceeded US$ 900–1,000 per metric ton by mid-year. As a result, activated carbon prices rose steeply: in Sri Lanka, from around US$ 3,000 per metric ton in January 2025 to over US$ 4,300 per metric ton by October, and in Indonesia, from approximately US$ 1,300–1,400 to above US$ 2,200 per metric ton over the same period. Compared with the limited volatility observed in 2023–2024, the 2025 experience highlights a much tighter linkage between raw material and finished product markets. Overall, the 2025 trends confirm that elevated and volatile coconut shell charcoal prices have been the primary driver of the current high-price environment in the activated carbon market.